13 August 2025,06:18
Daily Market Analysis
13 August 2025, 06:18
Key Takeaways:
*Australian Dollar steady near $0.6525 as softer USD offsets RBA’s dovish tone.
*Domestic headwinds from slowing growth, weaker wages, and softer commodities cap upside.
*Fed policy shifts and commodity price trends remain key near-term catalysts for AUD/USD.
Market Summary:
The Australian Dollar held near $0.6525 after recovering from early-session weakness, supported by U.S. dollar softness and a modest improvement in global trade sentiment. The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its third 25 bps rate cut of the year, lowering the cash rate to 3.60% and striking a distinctly dovish tone. Policymakers downgraded 2025 GDP growth to 1.7% and signaled the possibility of further easing should inflation currently at 2.1% remain below target for a sustained period.
Domestic economic indicators continue to point to a cooling economy. Wage growth has slowed, labor market conditions have softened, and business investment remains lackluster. While commodity exports have found some relief from China’s suspended tariff hikes, weaker iron ore and coal prices are limiting broader trade benefits.
From a global perspective, Fed policy remains a key swing factor for the AUD. A September U.S. rate cut could provide further upside, but the RBA’s easing bias and ongoing domestic sluggishness are likely to cap rallies. For now, the currency is expected to trade within a $0.6465–$0.6540 range, with any breakout likely driven by a decisive shift in U.S. monetary policy or a meaningful rebound in commodity markets.
AUD/USD is pushing higher toward the 0.6550 area, currently trading near 0.6530 after rebounding from the 0.6495 support and holding within its upward-sloping channel. The pair is now testing the midline of this channel, with bullish momentum building as it attempts to clear the 200-period moving average at 0.6520. A sustained break above the 0.6550 zone would position the pair for a move toward the 0.6644 channel resistance.
Momentum indicators lean in favor of buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 58, approaching bullish territory but still leaving room before overbought conditions. The MACD is on the verge of a bullish crossover, with the histogram flattening near zero, hinting at a potential shift in momentum toward the upside. Volume has also picked up alongside the recent rally, reinforcing the constructive outlook.
A decisive close above 0.6550 would likely open the path toward 0.6644, with the next upside target at 0.6715. On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6495, followed by 0.6415 and the key 0.6325 level, where a break below would risk reversing the channel’s bullish structure.
Resistance Levels: 0.6550, 0.6644
Support Levels: 0.6415, 0.6325
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